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The Daily Karat
No. 412

Real yields blinked. Gold didn't wait for permission.

The bid that took spot through the overnight high was not retail and it was not ETFs. Here's who was actually buying, why the miners lagged by a full session, and the level where this stops being a squeeze and starts being a trend.

Spot gold2,418.60+0.84%
Silver31.12+1.36%
Gold/Silver ratio77.7-0.51%
10y real yield1.87%-4 bp

Illustrative sample — not live market data

XAU/USD2,418.60+0.84%
XAG/USD31.12+1.36%
GOLD/SILVER77.7-0.51%
GDX MINERS38.94+1.02%
US 10Y REAL1.87%-4 bp
DXY104.21-0.19%
CB DEMAND (Q)289 t+6.1%

What's inside

A precious metals desk, in newsletter form.

Gold is the anchor. But a hedge you can't size is just a feeling, so Karat widens into silver, the miners and the macro that actually drives them.

Daily

The pre-London read

Every trading day before the London open: what moved gold overnight, who was doing the moving, and the two levels that matter into New York.

Daily

Silver and the ratio

Silver gets its own thesis, not a footnote. We track the gold-silver ratio, industrial demand and the moments the ratio has historically snapped back.

Weekly

The miners screen

Seniors, juniors and royalties ranked on all-in sustaining costs, reserve grade and leverage to spot — so you know which names actually gear to the metal.

Weekly

Macro hedge dashboard

Real yields, the dollar, breakevens, CPI prints and central-bank buying, distilled into one question: is the hedge working right now, or not?

Twice weekly

Positioning and flows

COT positioning, ETF flows and options skew read together, so you can see when a rally is being bought and when it's just being covered.

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The public scorecard

Every call we make is logged with its entry, its thesis and its outcome — the winners and the ones that aged badly. Judge the letter on the record.

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Silver, miners and macro in the same letter

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Numbers you can act on, not general commentary

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Every call logged, wins and losses

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Inside an edition

Four sections. Nine minutes. One clear view.

Every edition follows the same structure, so you always know where to look — whether you have two minutes on the platform or twenty at your desk.

  1. 01The overnightWhat moved, by how much, and whether it mattered.
  2. 02The thesisOne argument, argued properly — with the counter-case stated.
  3. 03The tablesLevels, positioning and the miners screen for the week.
  4. 04The scorecardOpen calls marked to market. Nothing quietly deleted.
Tuesday edition9 min read

Central banks are the marginal buyer again — and nobody has repriced it

Official-sector demand has now printed above the five-year average for four consecutive quarters. That is no longer a story about one central bank diversifying; it is a structural bid that sits underneath every drawdown.

The interesting part is what it does to the correlation with real yields. If a price-insensitive buyer takes a persistent share of supply, the metal stops trading purely as a duration asset — which is exactly what we saw last week when 10-year reals rose and gold refused to break.

The counter-case: official buying is lumpy and reported with a lag. One quiet quarter and this thesis needs rewriting — which is why the position is sized at two-thirds, not full.

Macro hedgeCentral banksReal yields

Illustrative sample edition

Reader response

Written for people who read closely.

Sample rating placeholder
I was reading four newsletters and a terminal to get what Karat puts in one screen before breakfast. The miners screen alone changed how I size positions.
Sample Reader ASelf-directed investor, illustrative testimonial
What sold me was the scorecard. Being able to scroll back through calls that didn't work, with the reasoning intact, is rarer than it should be.
Sample Reader BFamily office analyst, illustrative testimonial
It treats gold as a macro instrument rather than a doomsday story. That framing is why I finally understood my own hedge.
Sample Reader CRetired engineer, illustrative testimonial

Testimonials shown are fictional placeholders for launch.

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One edition every trading day, sent before the London open. It opens with a two-minute read of what moved gold overnight, then goes into the positioning, flows and macro context behind the move — plus the levels we're watching into the New York session.

Karat

A daily letter on gold, silver, miners and the macro hedge — written for investors who want a considered view instead of another headline feed.

Karat publishes market research and commentary for information purposes only. Nothing on this page or in the newsletter is personalised investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or commodity. Precious metals and mining equities carry risk, including loss of capital. Figures, quotes and testimonials shown on this page are illustrative samples, not live market data.

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